Hidden Value : Kirloskar oil engines

October 29, 2006

Analysis date: Aug 2006

Kirloskar oil engines, a company from the kirloskar group has two main business segments

Engines: This business segment accounts for almost 80 % of the revenue and is the main business segment. This business caters to the farm sector, power sector, industrial machinery, Construction and material handling equipment. In addition the company has contracts/ relationships with OEM manufacturers, the armed forces and has its own service dealers and service personnels. The company has products in a wide HP ranges and has technical collaborations too. The highest volume comes from the small engines segment followed by the medium engines.

Autocomponents: This business segment accounts for the balance 20% and had an above industry growth due to capacity constraints. In addition the company has OEM relationships with some prominent companies such as maruti, sundaram clayton etc. The main products are valves and bearings

Other business: Some other minor businesses such as manufacturing grey iron castings, trading, power generation and sales (which is under review due to dropping sales)

The Company has benefitted from the recent improvement in the capital goods sector and upturn in the power sector. The period from 1996 to 2001 such low growth (20% in almost 6-7 years). Due to the improvement in the business climate the topline and margins have improved dramatically in the recent past. The company is seeing good volume growth in its core business and has also delivered good performance in the export sector which crossed 100 Crs this year.

Due to the nature of the industry (capital goods) with limited and large buyers, and due to cyclical nature the topline and margins are also cyclical. The NPM has fluctuated between as low as 2-3 % to 15 % in the recent past. I would put the average NPM at 6-7 % over a complete business cycle.

The company has become fairly efficient with the Fixed asset turnover ratios expanding from 4-5 to 7-8 in the recent past. Wcap ratios have gone through a dramatic improvement and is now almost 14. This freeing up of the capital has raised the ROE from 8-10 % to almost 30% +. In addition on a total capital base of 795 Cr, almost 500 Crs is investments.

This 500 Crs of investment at market value is almost 1000cr which translates into almost 95 Rs/ share (net of debt)

Valuation: The last year Netprofit is almost Rs 10 / share (net of exceptional items). With almost 95 Rs / share of investment, I would value the stock at approximately 350 Rs / share (max). There are various assumptions behind this valuation, namely

1. Rs 18/ share for current year’s earnings are during a cyclical high. The average earnings are more like 14-16.

2. Rs 95/ share of investments is not really realisable as a major part of this investment is in other group/ JV’s, which are unlikely to be sold off soon.

3. The company has some competitive advantage such as customer relationships, some economies of scale etc. But in the end it is in a cyclical industry with moderate to weak pricing strength and hence I would not accord the core business a PE multiple of more than 16-18.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: